I know. You probably don't care about how I chose my bracket winners, assuming I flipped a coin, watched Dick Vitale, or threw darts with a blindfold on. But after I insisted you enter the office pool for job growth, and provided you with the picks, I failed to give much detail.
And since you are spending the entire week reading meaningless blogs and fan polls trying to fill out brackets and validate your choices, and as long as you aren't working much today, let's break down my picks.
First of all, while the 9 seed may take out the 8 seed, and a few large upsets may occur, the reality of this tournament is that I don't see any team worse than a 3 seed moving on too far. Kansas State has ability as a number 5 seed, but they are a mess. K-State has 10 losses, did nothing in the big 12 tourney, and would have to get through a good Utah State team, a smart Wisconsin team, and a mature Pitt. Washington could make some noise as a 7 seed as their point guard Isaiah Thomas is one of the best in the country. But they are not consistent enough to win more than three in a row. Wisconsin executes well as a 4 seed, but winning six games is tough when the score is always 52-50 at the end of a game.
The 4 seeds with the best shot are Kentucky and Louisville. I'm not high on Texas. They have all the talent in the world, but haven't been playing great as of late. Kentucky's only weakness is their youth. Knight and Jones are the best Freshman duo in the country. Lamb is a great shooter if healthy. And the coach knows what he's doing. Louisville is a good pick. Great athletes, good depth, but they rely on the perimeter shot a little too much for six games. And they would have to get by Kansas.
The three seeds are Syracuse, UConn, Purdue, and BYU. BYU is still pretty good, but with no inside game it will be tough. BYU likes a game in the 80's. In tournament time, defense and pace tends to slow teams way down and out of their comfort zone. UConn has depth, and the best closer in the game with Kemba Walker, but their nine losses show they are beatable. Purdue is really good. I just question the overall talent of the big ten this year and believe Purdue has the most difficult bracket to advance having to beat a healthy Georgetown, really good Notre Dame club, then Kansas just to win the region. Syracuse has a decent shot. But Xavier in Cleveland, a tall North Carolina squad, and Ohio State in the regional finals is a lot.
Truthfully, I like the three seeds more than the two seeds. North Carolina could lose to a hot Washington, even in Charlotte. But their biggest weaknesses are that Marshall and Barnes are really young, while Henson and Zeller are really soft. Great rebounding team, great talent. But they can't beat Ohio State. San Diego State plays great defense and has talent at every position. They simply haven't had to play anyone this year, especially with the world watching. Florida was seeded too high in the first place. But I don't see much of a challenge until they play Pittsburgh in the elite eight. Notre Dame has no weaknesses. They execute, have senior leadership, can really shoot and play defense, but have to get by Texas A&M, Purdue, and Kansas. Three teams that do the same, except with arguably more talent.
That leaves me with Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, and Pitt. While it is pretty lame to pick all four number one seeds making the final four, they all have the experience and inside/outside game necessary to go deep into the tournament. Ohio State beats Duke because Duke relies on too many deep shots from Curry, Singler, and others. Pittsburgh beats out Kansas by neutralizing the Morris twins with size and toughness, while frustrating the Kansas back court.
In the end, the Buckeyes win it. Ohio State has long distance shooting, an inside game, senior leadership, coaching, and have proven that they can win when the other team tries to slow the game down, or run you out of the building.
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