Is it fair that I wait until a game into the Western playoff before telling the world my picks? Most would see this as an unfair advantage. I have seen Memphis steal one in San Antonio with an injured Ginobli. I have seen Chris Paul dominate a lethargic Laker team. Denver probably got robbed in their loss to Oklahoma City. And Portland, who many picked in an upset, is already down 2-0.
But this isn't my NCAA office pool. No one is obligated to get their picks in before tip-off. This is a blog. Besides, nothing that has transpired has made any difference from my initial thoughts.
San Antonio worked all season long to grab the number one seed, only to lose Ginobli and the first game against the young Grizzlies. The rumor is that Memphis tanked games at the end of the season in order to match up against the Spurs, and not the Lakers. In game one, Marc Gasol played Duncan straight up. Parker and Jefferson were average. And Battier came up huge. But San Antonio is not losing to the Grizzlies. Ginobli or not, Memphis has never won a play off series and won't win this one either.
The Denver Nuggets played Oklahoma City to the buzzer. Oklahoma City showed the West that Durant and Westbrook are an impossible match up. They also showed that if their front line can't handle Nene, KMart, and Chris Anderson, they are not going past the next round. But the Thunder will survive round one.
This Dallas team is almost identical to past Maverick teams, which play too soft and lose early in the play offs. The biggest difference is Tyson Chandler. Finally, the Mavs have a rebounder and shot blocker that can cover for the lack of an interior game. Jason Kidd is playing great, Dirk is Dirk, and winning in Dallas is next to impossible as Dirk gets every call at crunch time. Portland, without a healthy Brandon Roy, never had a chance. But Dallas desperately needed the two seed in order to go far.
The Los Angeles Lakers. I'll admit that I'm a Laker fan. They have the most talent, back to back rings, depth, size, Kobe, Phil, and get most of the calls. In a close game, Kobe will get the whistle, Fisher will get the flop call, and David Stern will do all he can to boost ratings. But this was the year to pick against them. Three-peating is next to impossible. San Antonio had home court. The Thunder got Perkins. The Mavs had the second seed sealed up. But I can't pick against them. First, the Lakers luck out by grabbing the two seed, avoiding the Thunder or Spurs until the conference finals. Then Ginobli gets injured. The Lakers will beat New Orleans and match up well against Dallas.
The Spurs and Thunder will meet in the next round and beat up on each other. Either way, the Lakers are the winners. If the Spurs survive, they will be too old and beat up for the Lakers. If the Thunder survive, the task of running against the Nuggets, pounding against the Spurs, then travelling to Los Angeles with no real play off veterans will be tough. Hey, the Thunder are great. Durant and Westbrook are stars. But Kendrick Perkins won't win championships for you. You win championships with Duncan, Ginobli, Bryant, Garnett, and Ray Allen. The Thunder will get there, but not yet. Look for the Spurs to win in seven against the Thunder. Then look for the Lakers to hit their stride and win in six against the Spurs.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
The NBA playoffs...the East.
The NBA playoffs start today, and the ring is up for grabs. The Chicago Bulls have the MVP, the best record, and the home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. The Miami Heat have LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and a lot to prove. The Boston Celtics were a quarter away from winning it all last year and come to the table with four all-stars, not including Shaq. San Antonio quietly won the West with relative ease. Dallas won 50 games again. The Thunder got better and bigger. And the Los Angeles Lakers grabbed the two seed in their quest to three-peat.
Let's start in the East. In the four vs. five match up, you have to like the Orlando Magic beating Atlanta. Atlanta has played bad basketball over the last few weeks and it is difficult to just turn it on come playoff time. The Hawks have a decent team, but show no signs that they have the match ups, or experience to beat Orlando. Orlando will go as far as Dwight Howard takes them. Gilbert Arenas, Richardson, Turkoglu, Nelson, and the rest, have been inconsistent to say the least. The Hack-a-Howard will be in full force. If Howard can't shoot better than 75% at the line, Orlando goes home.
The three vs. six match up looks good on paper. Ray Allen, KG, Paul Pierce, Rondo and company, versus Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Chauncey Billups. But the Knicks don't play defense and don't have the depth to stay with Boston. Boston has not been the same team since they traded Kendrick Perkins, and the thought that often injured Shaquille O'Neil will be a difference maker is laughable, but despite injuries, the Celtics have experience and the benches get shortened come playoff time.
Miami takes on Philly in the two vs. seven match up. I worry about the Heat in the playoffs. I could see Miami getting tight and LeBron forcing things. I could see strong defensive schemes forcing someone besides LeBron and Wade to make shots. But I don't see problems versus Philly. The next round versus Boston is a different story. Boston plays best in a defensive half court style, and Miami has been dreadful against the good teams. Look for Boston to advance to the conference finals.
Chicago is way too good for the Pacers in the one versus eight match up, but are they ready for a championship? Derrick Rose is the best point guard in basketball. The Bulls are solid at every position with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson up front. Korver and Deng on the wings. Thomas, Brewer, and Watson on the bench. They have depth, defense, and Rose. But new teams often need a few tries to win championships. Wade has won championships, LeBron has been to the finals, the Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics have all been there. Even Orlando went to the finals two years ago. Who on the Bulls has been there? Brain Scalabrine? I would love to see the Bulls go to the Finals, but I just don't see it. And as a long time Laker fan, I hate that I'm picking the Celtics.
So mark me down for the Magic, Heat, Celtics, and Bulls to advance. I like the Celtics in seven over the Heat, and the Bulls in six over the Magic. In the finals, the Celtics take the Bulls in seven games to advance for a chance for the ring.
Let's start in the East. In the four vs. five match up, you have to like the Orlando Magic beating Atlanta. Atlanta has played bad basketball over the last few weeks and it is difficult to just turn it on come playoff time. The Hawks have a decent team, but show no signs that they have the match ups, or experience to beat Orlando. Orlando will go as far as Dwight Howard takes them. Gilbert Arenas, Richardson, Turkoglu, Nelson, and the rest, have been inconsistent to say the least. The Hack-a-Howard will be in full force. If Howard can't shoot better than 75% at the line, Orlando goes home.
The three vs. six match up looks good on paper. Ray Allen, KG, Paul Pierce, Rondo and company, versus Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Chauncey Billups. But the Knicks don't play defense and don't have the depth to stay with Boston. Boston has not been the same team since they traded Kendrick Perkins, and the thought that often injured Shaquille O'Neil will be a difference maker is laughable, but despite injuries, the Celtics have experience and the benches get shortened come playoff time.
Miami takes on Philly in the two vs. seven match up. I worry about the Heat in the playoffs. I could see Miami getting tight and LeBron forcing things. I could see strong defensive schemes forcing someone besides LeBron and Wade to make shots. But I don't see problems versus Philly. The next round versus Boston is a different story. Boston plays best in a defensive half court style, and Miami has been dreadful against the good teams. Look for Boston to advance to the conference finals.
Chicago is way too good for the Pacers in the one versus eight match up, but are they ready for a championship? Derrick Rose is the best point guard in basketball. The Bulls are solid at every position with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson up front. Korver and Deng on the wings. Thomas, Brewer, and Watson on the bench. They have depth, defense, and Rose. But new teams often need a few tries to win championships. Wade has won championships, LeBron has been to the finals, the Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics have all been there. Even Orlando went to the finals two years ago. Who on the Bulls has been there? Brain Scalabrine? I would love to see the Bulls go to the Finals, but I just don't see it. And as a long time Laker fan, I hate that I'm picking the Celtics.
So mark me down for the Magic, Heat, Celtics, and Bulls to advance. I like the Celtics in seven over the Heat, and the Bulls in six over the Magic. In the finals, the Celtics take the Bulls in seven games to advance for a chance for the ring.
Monday, April 4, 2011
My Gambling Problem.
I thought it all ended a few weeks ago as I returned from Las Vegas a few dollars down. It's tough not to gamble when you spend three days in the casinos with sportsbooks, televisions, black jack tables, and a drink or two. But despite lady luck slapping me around a bit, I left the town in decent shape. A couple of stops at the ATM, a few bags under my eyes, and a few wagers lost, but I assumed it was over once I landed back home.
But last night I hit rock bottom.
The term "gambling problem" is an interesting one. No one has ever been accused of having a problem when things are going well. And to be honest, I only lost $20 on my wager last night after winning much more a few nights before. But every addiction has a defining moment. A drug addict finds themselves stealing from their grandmother's medicine cabinet. The alcoholic starts buying those little airplane sized bottles and storing them in her purse. And the addicted gambler, like me, bets on NCAA Women's basketball.
I'd like to blame my neighbor. After all, with the exception of the occasional bet placed between friends, the kind that no one ever pays, I only bet when I'm in Vegas. I don't have a bookie, or an online account. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, including my sports wagers. But the exception of the rule is when a friend or neighbor is in Vegas and calls you. Then wagering is allowed.
It all started with a winning ticket from a sportsbook at Bally's. I forgot to cash it in, so I gave it to my neighbor to "invest" for me. I put the money on the Kentucky vs. UConn game, analyzing the match ups, schedules, scoring numbers, shooting percentages, and defenses to try and predict the pace of the game and the total points. I bet the under, meaning if the combined score was less than 141 I would win. The final score was 56-55. I would now have 48 hours to think about my next investment, the Butler vs. UConn game, my neighbor would return by Friday, and my gambling days would end until next year's March trip to Vegas with the fellas.
But 48 hours was too long. And I was too hot.
"What's the spread on the UConn women's game tonight?" I asked.
I've never watched a complete women's college game before in my life. I only know two things about women's college basketball. Baylor has a 6'8 center who can dunk, and UConn wins the tournament every year. No stats, no match ups, I just put $20 on UConn and watched part of the game from my living room, drinking a glass of red wine from Chile. It was me hitting rock bottom, and my team lost.
Tonight is my last dance, so to speak. I have UConn covering the 3 point spread and I am betting the over at 129. Simply put, Butler will try and slow the game down and limit possessions. UConn will push the pace a bit more. I expect a low scoring game, but 129 is too low. Win or lose, it will be my last wager for some time as I still think about how I lost all self control, curled up in my living room, watching women's hoops on the big screen, holding a wine glass during a sporting event, defeated by the Lady Irish of Notre Dame.
Every addict has a defining moment. Last night was mine.
But last night I hit rock bottom.
The term "gambling problem" is an interesting one. No one has ever been accused of having a problem when things are going well. And to be honest, I only lost $20 on my wager last night after winning much more a few nights before. But every addiction has a defining moment. A drug addict finds themselves stealing from their grandmother's medicine cabinet. The alcoholic starts buying those little airplane sized bottles and storing them in her purse. And the addicted gambler, like me, bets on NCAA Women's basketball.
I'd like to blame my neighbor. After all, with the exception of the occasional bet placed between friends, the kind that no one ever pays, I only bet when I'm in Vegas. I don't have a bookie, or an online account. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, including my sports wagers. But the exception of the rule is when a friend or neighbor is in Vegas and calls you. Then wagering is allowed.
It all started with a winning ticket from a sportsbook at Bally's. I forgot to cash it in, so I gave it to my neighbor to "invest" for me. I put the money on the Kentucky vs. UConn game, analyzing the match ups, schedules, scoring numbers, shooting percentages, and defenses to try and predict the pace of the game and the total points. I bet the under, meaning if the combined score was less than 141 I would win. The final score was 56-55. I would now have 48 hours to think about my next investment, the Butler vs. UConn game, my neighbor would return by Friday, and my gambling days would end until next year's March trip to Vegas with the fellas.
But 48 hours was too long. And I was too hot.
"What's the spread on the UConn women's game tonight?" I asked.
I've never watched a complete women's college game before in my life. I only know two things about women's college basketball. Baylor has a 6'8 center who can dunk, and UConn wins the tournament every year. No stats, no match ups, I just put $20 on UConn and watched part of the game from my living room, drinking a glass of red wine from Chile. It was me hitting rock bottom, and my team lost.
Tonight is my last dance, so to speak. I have UConn covering the 3 point spread and I am betting the over at 129. Simply put, Butler will try and slow the game down and limit possessions. UConn will push the pace a bit more. I expect a low scoring game, but 129 is too low. Win or lose, it will be my last wager for some time as I still think about how I lost all self control, curled up in my living room, watching women's hoops on the big screen, holding a wine glass during a sporting event, defeated by the Lady Irish of Notre Dame.
Every addict has a defining moment. Last night was mine.
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