Is it fair that I wait until a game into the Western playoff before telling the world my picks? Most would see this as an unfair advantage. I have seen Memphis steal one in San Antonio with an injured Ginobli. I have seen Chris Paul dominate a lethargic Laker team. Denver probably got robbed in their loss to Oklahoma City. And Portland, who many picked in an upset, is already down 2-0.
But this isn't my NCAA office pool. No one is obligated to get their picks in before tip-off. This is a blog. Besides, nothing that has transpired has made any difference from my initial thoughts.
San Antonio worked all season long to grab the number one seed, only to lose Ginobli and the first game against the young Grizzlies. The rumor is that Memphis tanked games at the end of the season in order to match up against the Spurs, and not the Lakers. In game one, Marc Gasol played Duncan straight up. Parker and Jefferson were average. And Battier came up huge. But San Antonio is not losing to the Grizzlies. Ginobli or not, Memphis has never won a play off series and won't win this one either.
The Denver Nuggets played Oklahoma City to the buzzer. Oklahoma City showed the West that Durant and Westbrook are an impossible match up. They also showed that if their front line can't handle Nene, KMart, and Chris Anderson, they are not going past the next round. But the Thunder will survive round one.
This Dallas team is almost identical to past Maverick teams, which play too soft and lose early in the play offs. The biggest difference is Tyson Chandler. Finally, the Mavs have a rebounder and shot blocker that can cover for the lack of an interior game. Jason Kidd is playing great, Dirk is Dirk, and winning in Dallas is next to impossible as Dirk gets every call at crunch time. Portland, without a healthy Brandon Roy, never had a chance. But Dallas desperately needed the two seed in order to go far.
The Los Angeles Lakers. I'll admit that I'm a Laker fan. They have the most talent, back to back rings, depth, size, Kobe, Phil, and get most of the calls. In a close game, Kobe will get the whistle, Fisher will get the flop call, and David Stern will do all he can to boost ratings. But this was the year to pick against them. Three-peating is next to impossible. San Antonio had home court. The Thunder got Perkins. The Mavs had the second seed sealed up. But I can't pick against them. First, the Lakers luck out by grabbing the two seed, avoiding the Thunder or Spurs until the conference finals. Then Ginobli gets injured. The Lakers will beat New Orleans and match up well against Dallas.
The Spurs and Thunder will meet in the next round and beat up on each other. Either way, the Lakers are the winners. If the Spurs survive, they will be too old and beat up for the Lakers. If the Thunder survive, the task of running against the Nuggets, pounding against the Spurs, then travelling to Los Angeles with no real play off veterans will be tough. Hey, the Thunder are great. Durant and Westbrook are stars. But Kendrick Perkins won't win championships for you. You win championships with Duncan, Ginobli, Bryant, Garnett, and Ray Allen. The Thunder will get there, but not yet. Look for the Spurs to win in seven against the Thunder. Then look for the Lakers to hit their stride and win in six against the Spurs.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
The NBA playoffs...the East.
The NBA playoffs start today, and the ring is up for grabs. The Chicago Bulls have the MVP, the best record, and the home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. The Miami Heat have LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and a lot to prove. The Boston Celtics were a quarter away from winning it all last year and come to the table with four all-stars, not including Shaq. San Antonio quietly won the West with relative ease. Dallas won 50 games again. The Thunder got better and bigger. And the Los Angeles Lakers grabbed the two seed in their quest to three-peat.
Let's start in the East. In the four vs. five match up, you have to like the Orlando Magic beating Atlanta. Atlanta has played bad basketball over the last few weeks and it is difficult to just turn it on come playoff time. The Hawks have a decent team, but show no signs that they have the match ups, or experience to beat Orlando. Orlando will go as far as Dwight Howard takes them. Gilbert Arenas, Richardson, Turkoglu, Nelson, and the rest, have been inconsistent to say the least. The Hack-a-Howard will be in full force. If Howard can't shoot better than 75% at the line, Orlando goes home.
The three vs. six match up looks good on paper. Ray Allen, KG, Paul Pierce, Rondo and company, versus Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Chauncey Billups. But the Knicks don't play defense and don't have the depth to stay with Boston. Boston has not been the same team since they traded Kendrick Perkins, and the thought that often injured Shaquille O'Neil will be a difference maker is laughable, but despite injuries, the Celtics have experience and the benches get shortened come playoff time.
Miami takes on Philly in the two vs. seven match up. I worry about the Heat in the playoffs. I could see Miami getting tight and LeBron forcing things. I could see strong defensive schemes forcing someone besides LeBron and Wade to make shots. But I don't see problems versus Philly. The next round versus Boston is a different story. Boston plays best in a defensive half court style, and Miami has been dreadful against the good teams. Look for Boston to advance to the conference finals.
Chicago is way too good for the Pacers in the one versus eight match up, but are they ready for a championship? Derrick Rose is the best point guard in basketball. The Bulls are solid at every position with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson up front. Korver and Deng on the wings. Thomas, Brewer, and Watson on the bench. They have depth, defense, and Rose. But new teams often need a few tries to win championships. Wade has won championships, LeBron has been to the finals, the Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics have all been there. Even Orlando went to the finals two years ago. Who on the Bulls has been there? Brain Scalabrine? I would love to see the Bulls go to the Finals, but I just don't see it. And as a long time Laker fan, I hate that I'm picking the Celtics.
So mark me down for the Magic, Heat, Celtics, and Bulls to advance. I like the Celtics in seven over the Heat, and the Bulls in six over the Magic. In the finals, the Celtics take the Bulls in seven games to advance for a chance for the ring.
Let's start in the East. In the four vs. five match up, you have to like the Orlando Magic beating Atlanta. Atlanta has played bad basketball over the last few weeks and it is difficult to just turn it on come playoff time. The Hawks have a decent team, but show no signs that they have the match ups, or experience to beat Orlando. Orlando will go as far as Dwight Howard takes them. Gilbert Arenas, Richardson, Turkoglu, Nelson, and the rest, have been inconsistent to say the least. The Hack-a-Howard will be in full force. If Howard can't shoot better than 75% at the line, Orlando goes home.
The three vs. six match up looks good on paper. Ray Allen, KG, Paul Pierce, Rondo and company, versus Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Chauncey Billups. But the Knicks don't play defense and don't have the depth to stay with Boston. Boston has not been the same team since they traded Kendrick Perkins, and the thought that often injured Shaquille O'Neil will be a difference maker is laughable, but despite injuries, the Celtics have experience and the benches get shortened come playoff time.
Miami takes on Philly in the two vs. seven match up. I worry about the Heat in the playoffs. I could see Miami getting tight and LeBron forcing things. I could see strong defensive schemes forcing someone besides LeBron and Wade to make shots. But I don't see problems versus Philly. The next round versus Boston is a different story. Boston plays best in a defensive half court style, and Miami has been dreadful against the good teams. Look for Boston to advance to the conference finals.
Chicago is way too good for the Pacers in the one versus eight match up, but are they ready for a championship? Derrick Rose is the best point guard in basketball. The Bulls are solid at every position with Noah, Boozer, and Gibson up front. Korver and Deng on the wings. Thomas, Brewer, and Watson on the bench. They have depth, defense, and Rose. But new teams often need a few tries to win championships. Wade has won championships, LeBron has been to the finals, the Lakers, Spurs, and Celtics have all been there. Even Orlando went to the finals two years ago. Who on the Bulls has been there? Brain Scalabrine? I would love to see the Bulls go to the Finals, but I just don't see it. And as a long time Laker fan, I hate that I'm picking the Celtics.
So mark me down for the Magic, Heat, Celtics, and Bulls to advance. I like the Celtics in seven over the Heat, and the Bulls in six over the Magic. In the finals, the Celtics take the Bulls in seven games to advance for a chance for the ring.
Monday, April 4, 2011
My Gambling Problem.
I thought it all ended a few weeks ago as I returned from Las Vegas a few dollars down. It's tough not to gamble when you spend three days in the casinos with sportsbooks, televisions, black jack tables, and a drink or two. But despite lady luck slapping me around a bit, I left the town in decent shape. A couple of stops at the ATM, a few bags under my eyes, and a few wagers lost, but I assumed it was over once I landed back home.
But last night I hit rock bottom.
The term "gambling problem" is an interesting one. No one has ever been accused of having a problem when things are going well. And to be honest, I only lost $20 on my wager last night after winning much more a few nights before. But every addiction has a defining moment. A drug addict finds themselves stealing from their grandmother's medicine cabinet. The alcoholic starts buying those little airplane sized bottles and storing them in her purse. And the addicted gambler, like me, bets on NCAA Women's basketball.
I'd like to blame my neighbor. After all, with the exception of the occasional bet placed between friends, the kind that no one ever pays, I only bet when I'm in Vegas. I don't have a bookie, or an online account. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, including my sports wagers. But the exception of the rule is when a friend or neighbor is in Vegas and calls you. Then wagering is allowed.
It all started with a winning ticket from a sportsbook at Bally's. I forgot to cash it in, so I gave it to my neighbor to "invest" for me. I put the money on the Kentucky vs. UConn game, analyzing the match ups, schedules, scoring numbers, shooting percentages, and defenses to try and predict the pace of the game and the total points. I bet the under, meaning if the combined score was less than 141 I would win. The final score was 56-55. I would now have 48 hours to think about my next investment, the Butler vs. UConn game, my neighbor would return by Friday, and my gambling days would end until next year's March trip to Vegas with the fellas.
But 48 hours was too long. And I was too hot.
"What's the spread on the UConn women's game tonight?" I asked.
I've never watched a complete women's college game before in my life. I only know two things about women's college basketball. Baylor has a 6'8 center who can dunk, and UConn wins the tournament every year. No stats, no match ups, I just put $20 on UConn and watched part of the game from my living room, drinking a glass of red wine from Chile. It was me hitting rock bottom, and my team lost.
Tonight is my last dance, so to speak. I have UConn covering the 3 point spread and I am betting the over at 129. Simply put, Butler will try and slow the game down and limit possessions. UConn will push the pace a bit more. I expect a low scoring game, but 129 is too low. Win or lose, it will be my last wager for some time as I still think about how I lost all self control, curled up in my living room, watching women's hoops on the big screen, holding a wine glass during a sporting event, defeated by the Lady Irish of Notre Dame.
Every addict has a defining moment. Last night was mine.
But last night I hit rock bottom.
The term "gambling problem" is an interesting one. No one has ever been accused of having a problem when things are going well. And to be honest, I only lost $20 on my wager last night after winning much more a few nights before. But every addiction has a defining moment. A drug addict finds themselves stealing from their grandmother's medicine cabinet. The alcoholic starts buying those little airplane sized bottles and storing them in her purse. And the addicted gambler, like me, bets on NCAA Women's basketball.
I'd like to blame my neighbor. After all, with the exception of the occasional bet placed between friends, the kind that no one ever pays, I only bet when I'm in Vegas. I don't have a bookie, or an online account. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas, including my sports wagers. But the exception of the rule is when a friend or neighbor is in Vegas and calls you. Then wagering is allowed.
It all started with a winning ticket from a sportsbook at Bally's. I forgot to cash it in, so I gave it to my neighbor to "invest" for me. I put the money on the Kentucky vs. UConn game, analyzing the match ups, schedules, scoring numbers, shooting percentages, and defenses to try and predict the pace of the game and the total points. I bet the under, meaning if the combined score was less than 141 I would win. The final score was 56-55. I would now have 48 hours to think about my next investment, the Butler vs. UConn game, my neighbor would return by Friday, and my gambling days would end until next year's March trip to Vegas with the fellas.
But 48 hours was too long. And I was too hot.
"What's the spread on the UConn women's game tonight?" I asked.
I've never watched a complete women's college game before in my life. I only know two things about women's college basketball. Baylor has a 6'8 center who can dunk, and UConn wins the tournament every year. No stats, no match ups, I just put $20 on UConn and watched part of the game from my living room, drinking a glass of red wine from Chile. It was me hitting rock bottom, and my team lost.
Tonight is my last dance, so to speak. I have UConn covering the 3 point spread and I am betting the over at 129. Simply put, Butler will try and slow the game down and limit possessions. UConn will push the pace a bit more. I expect a low scoring game, but 129 is too low. Win or lose, it will be my last wager for some time as I still think about how I lost all self control, curled up in my living room, watching women's hoops on the big screen, holding a wine glass during a sporting event, defeated by the Lady Irish of Notre Dame.
Every addict has a defining moment. Last night was mine.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Bracket failures and reading the signs
Ohio State limped off the floor last night as a Kentucky freshman drained a tough shot at the buzzer to eliminate the number one seed, and worse, destroy what was a decent NCAA bracket that I had going. Winning six games is a difficult feat, especially when games come down to 18 year old kids making or failing to make plays under pressure situations.
I had Ohio State winning the whole thing, but it wasn't to be. I had Pittsburgh in the championship game, but they failed to take advantage of a bad play at mid court, then returned the favor with less than a second left.
My bracket now looks like my old high school English papers. Full of words crossed out and needing much correction.
Looking back at the beginning of it all, I should have read the obvious signs, I should have followed my instincts. Instead of looking at conferences, match ups, and zone defenses, I should have followed my gut.
First of all, my favorite show on television is WB's Wildcats, or is it HellCats? Whatever, it was a sign. Targeted towards the average thirteen year old, this YA cheerleader high school drama should have been an obvious sign to pick the Arizona Wildcats and the Kentucky Wildcats to make the Elite Eight. And the Tar Heels. How did I miss that? Tar Heel rhymes with car wheel, which I use to drive my kids to gymnastics to do cart wheels. We all should have had UConn in our bracket. I like Brian's Song, Hoosiers, Miracle, and The Natural. But the most inspirational sports movie of all time has to be The Waterboy. "UConn do it." The words are all so clear. Butler is an easy choice in retrospect. Who doesn't wish they had a Butler? Of course, by that logic Morehead State should have been a bracket favorite as well. Kansas is probably on everyone's bracket. I had them being upset in the Final Four, but again, I failed to read the signs. Kansas, Toto, The Wizard of Oz, follow the yellow brick road, the road to the Final Four, it is all right there. Even Dorothy had to get by flying monkeys and wicked witches. Kansas has gotten this far facing the likes of Boston University, Illinois, Richmond, and soon to be VCU.
For the life of me, I can't figure out the sign I missed that should have told me to pencil in VCU in my Elite Eight? Was it my love for the HBO show Entourage and Vincent Chase? My infatuation with Victoria C-cret? Whatever it was, that was a tough one.
Fortunately for me, the failure of Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Duke, and others, does not eliminate my prospects for the rest of the tournament because I did follow my instincts in one particular way.
My heart told me to fill out 27 other brackets in 11 different office pools.
I had Ohio State winning the whole thing, but it wasn't to be. I had Pittsburgh in the championship game, but they failed to take advantage of a bad play at mid court, then returned the favor with less than a second left.
My bracket now looks like my old high school English papers. Full of words crossed out and needing much correction.
Looking back at the beginning of it all, I should have read the obvious signs, I should have followed my instincts. Instead of looking at conferences, match ups, and zone defenses, I should have followed my gut.
First of all, my favorite show on television is WB's Wildcats, or is it HellCats? Whatever, it was a sign. Targeted towards the average thirteen year old, this YA cheerleader high school drama should have been an obvious sign to pick the Arizona Wildcats and the Kentucky Wildcats to make the Elite Eight. And the Tar Heels. How did I miss that? Tar Heel rhymes with car wheel, which I use to drive my kids to gymnastics to do cart wheels. We all should have had UConn in our bracket. I like Brian's Song, Hoosiers, Miracle, and The Natural. But the most inspirational sports movie of all time has to be The Waterboy. "UConn do it." The words are all so clear. Butler is an easy choice in retrospect. Who doesn't wish they had a Butler? Of course, by that logic Morehead State should have been a bracket favorite as well. Kansas is probably on everyone's bracket. I had them being upset in the Final Four, but again, I failed to read the signs. Kansas, Toto, The Wizard of Oz, follow the yellow brick road, the road to the Final Four, it is all right there. Even Dorothy had to get by flying monkeys and wicked witches. Kansas has gotten this far facing the likes of Boston University, Illinois, Richmond, and soon to be VCU.
For the life of me, I can't figure out the sign I missed that should have told me to pencil in VCU in my Elite Eight? Was it my love for the HBO show Entourage and Vincent Chase? My infatuation with Victoria C-cret? Whatever it was, that was a tough one.
Fortunately for me, the failure of Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Duke, and others, does not eliminate my prospects for the rest of the tournament because I did follow my instincts in one particular way.
My heart told me to fill out 27 other brackets in 11 different office pools.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Bracket Blabber
I know. You probably don't care about how I chose my bracket winners, assuming I flipped a coin, watched Dick Vitale, or threw darts with a blindfold on. But after I insisted you enter the office pool for job growth, and provided you with the picks, I failed to give much detail.
And since you are spending the entire week reading meaningless blogs and fan polls trying to fill out brackets and validate your choices, and as long as you aren't working much today, let's break down my picks.
First of all, while the 9 seed may take out the 8 seed, and a few large upsets may occur, the reality of this tournament is that I don't see any team worse than a 3 seed moving on too far. Kansas State has ability as a number 5 seed, but they are a mess. K-State has 10 losses, did nothing in the big 12 tourney, and would have to get through a good Utah State team, a smart Wisconsin team, and a mature Pitt. Washington could make some noise as a 7 seed as their point guard Isaiah Thomas is one of the best in the country. But they are not consistent enough to win more than three in a row. Wisconsin executes well as a 4 seed, but winning six games is tough when the score is always 52-50 at the end of a game.
The 4 seeds with the best shot are Kentucky and Louisville. I'm not high on Texas. They have all the talent in the world, but haven't been playing great as of late. Kentucky's only weakness is their youth. Knight and Jones are the best Freshman duo in the country. Lamb is a great shooter if healthy. And the coach knows what he's doing. Louisville is a good pick. Great athletes, good depth, but they rely on the perimeter shot a little too much for six games. And they would have to get by Kansas.
The three seeds are Syracuse, UConn, Purdue, and BYU. BYU is still pretty good, but with no inside game it will be tough. BYU likes a game in the 80's. In tournament time, defense and pace tends to slow teams way down and out of their comfort zone. UConn has depth, and the best closer in the game with Kemba Walker, but their nine losses show they are beatable. Purdue is really good. I just question the overall talent of the big ten this year and believe Purdue has the most difficult bracket to advance having to beat a healthy Georgetown, really good Notre Dame club, then Kansas just to win the region. Syracuse has a decent shot. But Xavier in Cleveland, a tall North Carolina squad, and Ohio State in the regional finals is a lot.
Truthfully, I like the three seeds more than the two seeds. North Carolina could lose to a hot Washington, even in Charlotte. But their biggest weaknesses are that Marshall and Barnes are really young, while Henson and Zeller are really soft. Great rebounding team, great talent. But they can't beat Ohio State. San Diego State plays great defense and has talent at every position. They simply haven't had to play anyone this year, especially with the world watching. Florida was seeded too high in the first place. But I don't see much of a challenge until they play Pittsburgh in the elite eight. Notre Dame has no weaknesses. They execute, have senior leadership, can really shoot and play defense, but have to get by Texas A&M, Purdue, and Kansas. Three teams that do the same, except with arguably more talent.
That leaves me with Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, and Pitt. While it is pretty lame to pick all four number one seeds making the final four, they all have the experience and inside/outside game necessary to go deep into the tournament. Ohio State beats Duke because Duke relies on too many deep shots from Curry, Singler, and others. Pittsburgh beats out Kansas by neutralizing the Morris twins with size and toughness, while frustrating the Kansas back court.
In the end, the Buckeyes win it. Ohio State has long distance shooting, an inside game, senior leadership, coaching, and have proven that they can win when the other team tries to slow the game down, or run you out of the building.
And since you are spending the entire week reading meaningless blogs and fan polls trying to fill out brackets and validate your choices, and as long as you aren't working much today, let's break down my picks.
First of all, while the 9 seed may take out the 8 seed, and a few large upsets may occur, the reality of this tournament is that I don't see any team worse than a 3 seed moving on too far. Kansas State has ability as a number 5 seed, but they are a mess. K-State has 10 losses, did nothing in the big 12 tourney, and would have to get through a good Utah State team, a smart Wisconsin team, and a mature Pitt. Washington could make some noise as a 7 seed as their point guard Isaiah Thomas is one of the best in the country. But they are not consistent enough to win more than three in a row. Wisconsin executes well as a 4 seed, but winning six games is tough when the score is always 52-50 at the end of a game.
The 4 seeds with the best shot are Kentucky and Louisville. I'm not high on Texas. They have all the talent in the world, but haven't been playing great as of late. Kentucky's only weakness is their youth. Knight and Jones are the best Freshman duo in the country. Lamb is a great shooter if healthy. And the coach knows what he's doing. Louisville is a good pick. Great athletes, good depth, but they rely on the perimeter shot a little too much for six games. And they would have to get by Kansas.
The three seeds are Syracuse, UConn, Purdue, and BYU. BYU is still pretty good, but with no inside game it will be tough. BYU likes a game in the 80's. In tournament time, defense and pace tends to slow teams way down and out of their comfort zone. UConn has depth, and the best closer in the game with Kemba Walker, but their nine losses show they are beatable. Purdue is really good. I just question the overall talent of the big ten this year and believe Purdue has the most difficult bracket to advance having to beat a healthy Georgetown, really good Notre Dame club, then Kansas just to win the region. Syracuse has a decent shot. But Xavier in Cleveland, a tall North Carolina squad, and Ohio State in the regional finals is a lot.
Truthfully, I like the three seeds more than the two seeds. North Carolina could lose to a hot Washington, even in Charlotte. But their biggest weaknesses are that Marshall and Barnes are really young, while Henson and Zeller are really soft. Great rebounding team, great talent. But they can't beat Ohio State. San Diego State plays great defense and has talent at every position. They simply haven't had to play anyone this year, especially with the world watching. Florida was seeded too high in the first place. But I don't see much of a challenge until they play Pittsburgh in the elite eight. Notre Dame has no weaknesses. They execute, have senior leadership, can really shoot and play defense, but have to get by Texas A&M, Purdue, and Kansas. Three teams that do the same, except with arguably more talent.
That leaves me with Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, and Pitt. While it is pretty lame to pick all four number one seeds making the final four, they all have the experience and inside/outside game necessary to go deep into the tournament. Ohio State beats Duke because Duke relies on too many deep shots from Curry, Singler, and others. Pittsburgh beats out Kansas by neutralizing the Morris twins with size and toughness, while frustrating the Kansas back court.
In the end, the Buckeyes win it. Ohio State has long distance shooting, an inside game, senior leadership, coaching, and have proven that they can win when the other team tries to slow the game down, or run you out of the building.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
NCAA Brackets and my winning picks
The East bracket. UTSA and Clemson will win the play in games. Then the first round winners will include Ohio State, George Mason, West Virginia, Syracuse, Washington, and North Carolina.
In the second round, Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina will move on. I am tempted to pick Washington over NC, but the game is in Charlotte.
The third round winners are Ohio State and Syracuse. North Carolina is simply too young. Ohio State wins the East region.
In the West. Duke, Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple, and San Diego State win first round games. Look out for Oakland over Texas, but Texas should prevail. In round two, Duke, Texas, UConn, and San Diego State move on.
In round three, Duke and San Diego State move on. San Diego State is really, really good. UConn will be really, really tired by then.
Duke beats San Diego State...only because they have been there before. But I would not be shocked by a San Diego State upset.
Southwest region. VCU wins the play in game. Kansas, UNLV, Vandy, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame win first round games. In round two, Kansas, Louisville, Purdue, and Notre Dame move on.
In round three, Kansas and Purdue move on, with Kansas winning the region.
The Southeast region has UALR winning the play in game, followed by Pitt, Old Dominion, Utah State in an upset over Kansas State, Wisconsin, Gonzaga in an upset over St. John's, BYU, Michigan State, and Florida winning first round games. Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Florida advance to the next round as BYU bows out.
Pittsburgh and Florida advance with Pittsburgh winning the region.
Final Four. Ohio State is too much for Duke. Pittsburgh guards are too much for Kansas. In the end, Ohio State is the National Champion.
Now go fill out your brackets.
In the second round, Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina will move on. I am tempted to pick Washington over NC, but the game is in Charlotte.
The third round winners are Ohio State and Syracuse. North Carolina is simply too young. Ohio State wins the East region.
In the West. Duke, Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple, and San Diego State win first round games. Look out for Oakland over Texas, but Texas should prevail. In round two, Duke, Texas, UConn, and San Diego State move on.
In round three, Duke and San Diego State move on. San Diego State is really, really good. UConn will be really, really tired by then.
Duke beats San Diego State...only because they have been there before. But I would not be shocked by a San Diego State upset.
Southwest region. VCU wins the play in game. Kansas, UNLV, Vandy, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame win first round games. In round two, Kansas, Louisville, Purdue, and Notre Dame move on.
In round three, Kansas and Purdue move on, with Kansas winning the region.
The Southeast region has UALR winning the play in game, followed by Pitt, Old Dominion, Utah State in an upset over Kansas State, Wisconsin, Gonzaga in an upset over St. John's, BYU, Michigan State, and Florida winning first round games. Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, and Florida advance to the next round as BYU bows out.
Pittsburgh and Florida advance with Pittsburgh winning the region.
Final Four. Ohio State is too much for Duke. Pittsburgh guards are too much for Kansas. In the end, Ohio State is the National Champion.
Now go fill out your brackets.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
The Big Dance mistakes
Maybe you don't care. On Sunday night the top 68 teams will be chosen for the NCAA basketball championships. ESPN will analyse every bracket, every match up, and America will sharpen its pencils in an effort to complete their picks for the millions of office pools due the next day.
You can choose not to participate. That's fine. But please understand that this will exclude you from the club. Every manager, sales person, CEO, and VP are spending countless hours getting together, networking, building relationships, and comparing brackets...while you wonder while no one is asking you to attend high level power lunches.
This is not just a bunch of basketball games. As an employee, you would not say no to a round of golf with the Board of Directors despite hating golf. You would not turn down a lunch meeting with the COO at an upscale steakhouse despite being a vegetarian. And you should not turn down the opportunity to show everyone in the office that you are more than just project demos and sales projections.
But be careful. An office worker can be invited to join the office pool as a symbol of inclusion, or as a simple strategy of adding your twenty dollars to the pool with little risk to them.
In every office there is a sports junkie like me, comparing statistics. And someone like you, circling winners because in a real fight, a Bear would beat a Horned Frog.
But fear not. On Monday, I will give you my picks and you can copy them, making you the star of the fifth floor cubicles. But just in case you plan to go solo. Here are the four biggest mistakes come bracket time.
Choosing a team because you attended the school. I know. You want to support your team. You don't want to jinx them by picking against them. And it's not like you picked them to win it all. You simply felt that your school was good enough to upset a team in the first round, and get lucky in the second round. Stop it. This is about winning...duh, winning. Besides, either way you win. If your college loses, your bracket is still good. If your bracket loses, at least your college is still in it.
History. Basketball is rich with tradition. Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Kansas. Those schools are good. But so is Notre Dame, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. This is a year in which names like Georgetown, Louisville, Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona, Michigan State, and even North Carolina, are going home early.
Conferences. Every basketball fan follows a specific team and often feels that their team's conference is either the toughest, or under rated. ESPN will tell you that the Big East is easily the toughest conference in America. You have been following the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac 10 all year and would take Wisconsin over Washington in a heartbeat. In the dance, it's not about conferences, it's about match ups. Senior leadership, point guards, post players. Butler made the finals last year.
Upsets. Congrats. Last year you picked a small liberal arts school in a first round upset and were the talk of the office for a day. Unfortunately, your other dark horse picks knocked you out early. Pools are won in the later rounds. You win with twelve out of sixteen left on the board, not with rolling the dice on BYU and Jimmer to win it all.
So this year, because of the play in games starting on Tuesday, you need to have your picks in on Monday! Just go to my blog, look for my picks, take complete credit, and include yourself in the least productive weeks of the year.
You can choose not to participate. That's fine. But please understand that this will exclude you from the club. Every manager, sales person, CEO, and VP are spending countless hours getting together, networking, building relationships, and comparing brackets...while you wonder while no one is asking you to attend high level power lunches.
This is not just a bunch of basketball games. As an employee, you would not say no to a round of golf with the Board of Directors despite hating golf. You would not turn down a lunch meeting with the COO at an upscale steakhouse despite being a vegetarian. And you should not turn down the opportunity to show everyone in the office that you are more than just project demos and sales projections.
But be careful. An office worker can be invited to join the office pool as a symbol of inclusion, or as a simple strategy of adding your twenty dollars to the pool with little risk to them.
In every office there is a sports junkie like me, comparing statistics. And someone like you, circling winners because in a real fight, a Bear would beat a Horned Frog.
But fear not. On Monday, I will give you my picks and you can copy them, making you the star of the fifth floor cubicles. But just in case you plan to go solo. Here are the four biggest mistakes come bracket time.
Choosing a team because you attended the school. I know. You want to support your team. You don't want to jinx them by picking against them. And it's not like you picked them to win it all. You simply felt that your school was good enough to upset a team in the first round, and get lucky in the second round. Stop it. This is about winning...duh, winning. Besides, either way you win. If your college loses, your bracket is still good. If your bracket loses, at least your college is still in it.
History. Basketball is rich with tradition. Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Kansas. Those schools are good. But so is Notre Dame, San Diego State, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. This is a year in which names like Georgetown, Louisville, Kentucky, UCLA, Arizona, Michigan State, and even North Carolina, are going home early.
Conferences. Every basketball fan follows a specific team and often feels that their team's conference is either the toughest, or under rated. ESPN will tell you that the Big East is easily the toughest conference in America. You have been following the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac 10 all year and would take Wisconsin over Washington in a heartbeat. In the dance, it's not about conferences, it's about match ups. Senior leadership, point guards, post players. Butler made the finals last year.
Upsets. Congrats. Last year you picked a small liberal arts school in a first round upset and were the talk of the office for a day. Unfortunately, your other dark horse picks knocked you out early. Pools are won in the later rounds. You win with twelve out of sixteen left on the board, not with rolling the dice on BYU and Jimmer to win it all.
So this year, because of the play in games starting on Tuesday, you need to have your picks in on Monday! Just go to my blog, look for my picks, take complete credit, and include yourself in the least productive weeks of the year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)