Is it fair that I wait until a game into the Western playoff before telling the world my picks? Most would see this as an unfair advantage. I have seen Memphis steal one in San Antonio with an injured Ginobli. I have seen Chris Paul dominate a lethargic Laker team. Denver probably got robbed in their loss to Oklahoma City. And Portland, who many picked in an upset, is already down 2-0.
But this isn't my NCAA office pool. No one is obligated to get their picks in before tip-off. This is a blog. Besides, nothing that has transpired has made any difference from my initial thoughts.
San Antonio worked all season long to grab the number one seed, only to lose Ginobli and the first game against the young Grizzlies. The rumor is that Memphis tanked games at the end of the season in order to match up against the Spurs, and not the Lakers. In game one, Marc Gasol played Duncan straight up. Parker and Jefferson were average. And Battier came up huge. But San Antonio is not losing to the Grizzlies. Ginobli or not, Memphis has never won a play off series and won't win this one either.
The Denver Nuggets played Oklahoma City to the buzzer. Oklahoma City showed the West that Durant and Westbrook are an impossible match up. They also showed that if their front line can't handle Nene, KMart, and Chris Anderson, they are not going past the next round. But the Thunder will survive round one.
This Dallas team is almost identical to past Maverick teams, which play too soft and lose early in the play offs. The biggest difference is Tyson Chandler. Finally, the Mavs have a rebounder and shot blocker that can cover for the lack of an interior game. Jason Kidd is playing great, Dirk is Dirk, and winning in Dallas is next to impossible as Dirk gets every call at crunch time. Portland, without a healthy Brandon Roy, never had a chance. But Dallas desperately needed the two seed in order to go far.
The Los Angeles Lakers. I'll admit that I'm a Laker fan. They have the most talent, back to back rings, depth, size, Kobe, Phil, and get most of the calls. In a close game, Kobe will get the whistle, Fisher will get the flop call, and David Stern will do all he can to boost ratings. But this was the year to pick against them. Three-peating is next to impossible. San Antonio had home court. The Thunder got Perkins. The Mavs had the second seed sealed up. But I can't pick against them. First, the Lakers luck out by grabbing the two seed, avoiding the Thunder or Spurs until the conference finals. Then Ginobli gets injured. The Lakers will beat New Orleans and match up well against Dallas.
The Spurs and Thunder will meet in the next round and beat up on each other. Either way, the Lakers are the winners. If the Spurs survive, they will be too old and beat up for the Lakers. If the Thunder survive, the task of running against the Nuggets, pounding against the Spurs, then travelling to Los Angeles with no real play off veterans will be tough. Hey, the Thunder are great. Durant and Westbrook are stars. But Kendrick Perkins won't win championships for you. You win championships with Duncan, Ginobli, Bryant, Garnett, and Ray Allen. The Thunder will get there, but not yet. Look for the Spurs to win in seven against the Thunder. Then look for the Lakers to hit their stride and win in six against the Spurs.
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